2024-10-14
作者：Zhong Jihui
On October 12, the latest episode of the Dialogue program was broadcast on CCTV-2, which themed on "Believe in China's PV" and focused on how China's PV can get out of the new predicament and turn crises into opportunities. Liu Hanyuan, Deputy to the NPC, Vice Chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Tongwei Group, was invited to attend the program. He, together with an expert group including Li Dongsheng, Founder and Chairman of TCL, Zhu Gongshan, Chairman of Golden Concord Group Limited, Zhong Baoshen, Chairman of Longi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Li Xiande, Chairman of Jinko Solar Co., Ltd., Gao Jifan, Chairman of TrinaSolar Co., Ltd., Lu Chuan, Chairman of Zhejiang Chint New Energy Development Co. Ltd., Li Junfeng, Executive Commissioner of China Energy Research Society, Wang Bohua, Honorary President of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, Zhu Tong, a researcher at the Energy Economics Research Office of the Institute of Industrial Economics of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, as well as Tang Renhu, Chairman of SinoCarbon Innovation and Investment Co., Ltd., pointed out the current situation and difficulties of the PV industry and discussed its future.
The Dialogue program has reported on the PV industry countless times, witnessing huge changes in China's PV industry. The PV industry has gone through a process from "reliance on imported raw materials, technology, and foreign markets" in the past to "ranking first in the world in three aspects" at present, from previously being considered "insignificant" as new energy to gradually becoming "significant main energy" today with the proposal of the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" goals. During this period, Chairman Liu Hanyuan attended the Dialogue program multiple times as a representative of PV entrepreneurs, explaining the results of China's PV development and cheering for its progress.
China's PV industry has made remarkable achievements all over the world. This can be seen as a typical example of the reversal of China's manufacturing industry, which finally realizes a powerful increase through Chinese wisdom and efforts. When faced with a new dilemma in the PV sector now, at its most critical development stage, Chairman Liu Hanyuan, along with entrepreneurs and experts, gathered at the Dialogue site to talk about changes, innovations, and breakthroughs, and carry out in-depth discussions on how China's PV industry can achieve sustained and high-quality development under the new situation.
CCTV-2's Dialogue program site
01 Expansion and Consolidation
Choose to expand or consolidate now?
Chairman Liu Hanyuan believes that it is actually right to give consideration to both expansion and consolidation. The PV sector's ups and downs will bring us more rational thinking and judgment, such as timing, division of labor, and collaboration, as well as creating a business ecosystem of "integrated development" and "common progress", rather than just a simple "competitive situation". Based on this business ecosystem, enterprises can make some trade-offs in the process of expansion and consolidation. There may be a compromise and balance between expansion and consolidation, which requires many parties to discuss and then make use of the strengths and avoid the weaknesses.
02 Technology
Why is it mixed despite technological leadership?
According to Chairman Liu Hanyuan, first of all, experts and think tanks need to study how much energy will be used in the next 25 to 35 years (from 2050 to 2060), when the carbon neutrality goal is basically achieved. Nowadays, more than half of the energy used by all mankind is non-electric energy, and this proportion is still over 60% in most countries including China. Under the background of carbon neutrality, almost all non-electric energy is fossil energy, which means that today's non-electric energy and fossil energy will all be converted into electric energy in the next 20 or 30 years, and provided by green energy of clean power generation.
Over the next 25 to 35 years, all fossil energy will be replaced by renewable energy. Taking China as an example, it takes 500 million to 700 million kilowatts of PV installed capacity every year to achieve carbon neutrality within 20 to 30 years. Therefore, for macro control of institutions, government officials, etc., PV development issues should be viewed based on scientific data. In addition to understanding the problem of enterprises growing too fast, it is necessary to answer the problem of slow application.
A wonderful sharing by Chairman Liu Hanyuan
03 Prospect
How to regain confidence in the PV sector?
Currently, it has become a consensus in the sector that new energy such as PV can be developed for a long time. The key word given by Chairman Liu Hanyuan regarding how to regain confidence in the sector is "application". He states that everything is ready except for some important conditions. PV power generation has developed rapidly, making it an industry that has reduced the overall system cost by 90% in the past decade. Its cost has also changed from a few yuan per kilowatt hour and requiring subsidies, to now being cheaper than that of coal and hydropower power generation. It has become the lowest-priced energy among various energy sources today. If together with pumped storage, chemical energy storage, and ultra-high voltage transmission and distribution from east to west, the cost of PV power generation can be almost less than or equal to the total cost of thermal power generation that was formerly relied on. From the perspective of technical path and cost-effectiveness, PV power generation fully enables to achieve the acceleration of application speed of 30% to 50% every year. Therefore, whether compared with the carbon neutrality requirements in 2050 and 2060, or with the mature capabilities of the current PV industry, there is sufficient pressure and motivation to further improve and accelerate the application of PV power generation.
Chairman Liu Hanyuan also said that in fact, the development of the PV sector has just begun. If it is compared to a person's growth, it is now at most in the teenage period, so the issues it faces are temporary "The Sorrows of Young Werther." Any sector will go through ups and downs. Surplus under market conditions is the norm and shortage is the temporary norm. Hence, in this process, it is normal to have repeated development and experience prosperity and difficulties. After a certain period of time, the PV market will regain a new balance. We are still full of confidence in the future.
Group photo